The statistics are ominous.
Joblessness in North Carolina soared to a 25-year high in November after employers cut 46,000 jobs. In the Charlotte region, unemployment was 7.1 percent in October, which tied August for the highest rate since at least 1990.
The number of people unemployed in the state is at a record 359,319 – and that might be low. The figures don’t capture those who have dropped from the work force altogether.
Next year probably won’t deliver much improvement. Economists predict recession through at least midyear. And even if it ends then, joblessness probably will rise into 2010 as businesses continue to contend with anemic growth. With the Carolinas posting higher unemployment rates than the nation in recent months, several Charlotte-area counties could see double-digit unemployment next year.
This recession, already a year old, has proven broad in scope and is hurting industries traditionally considered safe havens in economic storms – government and health care among them.
That makes it hard to predict where job creation will come in the new year. But here’s a good bet: Construction will get a boost.
President-elect Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress are orchestrating a stimulus package that could reach $850 billion. A centerpiece of that effort is a public works program to upgrade the nation’s roads and infrastructure.
If approved and successfully implemented, such a program not only could generate direct construction jobs but could rev up hiring in ancillary businesses as well. Martin Marietta Materials of Raleigh, for instance, might need more people to work in quarries where it mines rocks and other aggregates used in construction.
But any effect will take time.
“Even if the measures work, it could take several more months for consumers and corporate America to regain confidence and begin spending again,” said John Challenger, chief executive of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which tracks labor market trends.
By his estimation, the health care, energy and education sectors also look promising for 2009.
They’re all hurting in the short term – education, for example, because government budgets are tighter, health care because a rise in uninsured patients is eroding revenue at doctors’ offices.
The long-term trends, though, are positive. Most school systems need more teachers and, with an aging population, more nurses and other health professionals are necessary to provide care.
“There are some bright spots,” Challenger said, but “competition for jobs will be heavy.”
In North Carolina, Charlotte will get much attention as job cuts mount in the financial sector. Leaders are bracing for significant upheaval as Bank of America buys Merrill Lynch & Co. and Wells Fargo takes over Wachovia.
Charlotte is the biggest regional economy in North Carolina and its gyrations sway the state’s direction. A sharp decline in well-paying financial jobs, for instance, would hurt the Triangle, which, with a large contingent of government employees, depends on strong tax receipts.
Source: Charlotte Observer
