A panel of 45 U.S. economists expects a “modest” economic rebound to begin in the second half of 2009, picking up steam in 2010.
According to the National Association for Business Economics, “The panel … (predicts) positive, albeit modest, growth in the third quarter, followed by steady improvement thereafter. On the whole, however, the economic rebound lacks luster. Real GDP growth over the second half of 2009 is expected to average a well-below-trend 1.2 percent pace.”
The forecasters say growth in 2010 “is slated for a return to near its historical trend, with real GDP rising 2.7 percent on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis. … (But) next year’s expected growth in GDP would be considerably more moderate than the typical rebound following a steep decline.”
The economists say labor conditions nationwide “are expected to deteriorate further, with additional, but decreasing job losses through year end.”
They predict the nation will have lost 4.5 million jobs by the end of 2009, driving the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent. But they say the rate should ease to 9.3 percent by the end of 2010.
The NABE Outlook report presents a consensus of macroeconomic expectations from a panel of 45 professional forecasters. The survey was conducted April 27-May 11.
Source: Charlotte Business Journal
